Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee, both initially seen as underdogs, are beginning to draw the attention of the mainstream republican party. The position of high-profile underdog is a powerful political tradition. Bill Clinton, who is widely regarded as one of the most popular politicians in recent history, lost his Arkansas gubernatorial re-election campaign in 1980, only to regain the position two years later, a position he would hold for the next ten years. In the 1992 democratic presidential nomination race, Clinton lost both Iowa and New Hampshire, but later rallied as "the comeback kid" to win several states in his native South, followed by liberal New York, and California, Jerry Brown's home state. What conclusions can we draw from this poignant parable of American politics? The most important conclusion: Iowa isn't everything. Sure the early states are important, but they're only important because they show Americans where things stand. Winning an early state can be just as dangerous as loosing one. Consider the case of John McCain's presidential bid in 2000. McCain handily won New Hampshire, the first primary for the republican nomination, beating George W Bush by a margin of 18%. The Bush campaign used this win to scare voters in South Carolina: "super-liberal, pro-abortion, pro-tax John McCain is on his way to the Republican nomination if Carolinians don't act now!" It didn't help that members of the Bush campaign were doing push-polls, which asked southern voters, "would it bother you to learn that John McCain, in 1993, had a child out of wedlock with a black woman?" The child referred to is McCain's daughter Bridget, who Cindy and John adopted in 1993 from an orphanage in Bangladesh. Bush's underdog status helped propel him to the nomination, and then the presidency.
In 2003, Howard Dean was already the presumptive democratic nominee, going into the early voting states. He held all the money and all the key endorsements. But, for whatever reason, Iowa voters didn't like what Dean had to offer, giving the primary to Kerry. It seems that Iowa wasn't prepared to be told who they were going to vote for. This year, Ron Paul might benefit from this front-runner fatigue phenomenon. If, going into some of the earlier states, Republicans remain dissatisfied with Giuliani, Romney, and Thompson, some support might start running to Paul. If you're an Iowa Republican, you might feel that Paul is your only real option. That's true for a few reasons:
First, Romney's a Mormon. Perhaps that shouldn't be a factor, but it is. A lot of Republicans think that a Mormon can't get the support that's expected for republican candidates in the South, especially because of his problems with his stance on abortion. If Romney gets the nomination, and the democrats pick a VP candidate who could appeal to southern voters (like John Edwards, Evan Bayh, or Mark Werner), then some traditionally republican southern states could come into play.
Second, Giuliani is suffering from a couple of potentially crippling problems; he comes off as a liberal, and he seems corrupt. No one quite believes that he's really pro-life. Rudy continues to insist that he has taken a strong stance on abortion, but his past betrays him. He won't find any help from the gun lobby, since he still won't come out against background checks and moderate gun control. Lastly, Giuliani is fighting two accusations of corruption at once. First came the Bernard Kerik scandal, which tied Kerik, Giuliani's long time friend, confidant, and NYC police chief, to various mob controlled businesses through bribery charges. Second, Rudy is now fighting allegations that he used various NYC departments under the Mayor's control to pay for his visits to his mistresses' house in the Hamptons. Giuliani's biggest problem is that he just comes off like a New York liberal, in other words, the anti-southern republican.
Third, Thompson lacks spunk. He doesn't come off as passionate about anything. His debate performances are mediocre at best. He's currently running on how bad everyone else is, as evidenced by his attack ad, placed in the middle of the CNN/You Tube debate. Thompson looks like what Ronald Reagan would look like if his body was unearthed and placed in front of a podium. He doesn't look, act, or speak like a president. That, and polls show that people don't trust him. He seems like an opportunist, and an unenthusiastic one at that.
Fourth, McCain is out of money, and out of luck. The straight talk express ran out of gas-money, right at a time when gas is at its peak. There is no worse time to run out of money. He can't effectively run the ads he needs to run in order to draw the necessary contrast between himself and everyone else. Southern republicans are looking for another choice...
They've found two, Texas congressman Ron Paul and Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee. Huckabee has recently pulled ahead in Iowa, making him a serious candidate, and a force to be reckoned with. Paul is projected to have the biggest fourth quarter fundraising out of all of the other republican candidates. The smart money seems to be running towards the underdogs.
Huckabee's religious conservatism could serve as both an asset and a liability. In the last two presidential elections, the religious right is largely credited with giving George Bush the white house. Huckabee seems to be the only candidate capable of playing to that constituency. On the other hand, many Americans are tired of having a conservative Christian in the oval office, and might have a knee jerk reaction to another one. Huckabee might be well served by distancing himself from the current president, and making it very clear that he's not "Bush 2.0".
Paul is quite a character. If his fundraising keeps up, he might be able to put on quite an ad-show as the primaries approach. Americans should get ready to see some hard-hitting attacks on compassionate conservative positions in the next few months. Paul comes off as trustworthy- a guy you can trust to stick to his guns, no matter what the political cost. That's a characteristic that served Ronald Reagan well, and endeared him to many conservative democrats. If Paul can keep up his momentum using his passionate debate performances, he could be a deadly force as an independent candidate in the general election. Ron has still not promised to endorse the republican nominee, which makes a lot of people think he's preparing for a third-party run. He has said that he's not considering it, and that he's a tried and true republican, but not many would be surprised if his tune changes as the general approaches. Paul's main problem is that he's not popular with the hard core of the republican base, due to his anti-Iraq and anti-military spending stances. A third-party run by Paul could have a huge impact on the general election. Just like Ross Perot in 1992, Paul could easily pull some conservative votes away from the republican nominee. The republican voters are already divided on key issues, that Paul could be perfectly positioned to capitalize on. He could draw a lot of anti-Iraq and anti-spending republicans. He's a true economic conservative, a trait which drew many voters to Reagan in the 80's.
If there's one man you can trust in the race for the republican ticket, it's Paul. He's the anti-Rudy Rompson. His positions are well thought-out and researched; he's always stuck to his beliefs; his voting record reflects his positions; his personal life fits his rhetoric; and he sounds like he knows what he's talking about. That's why he can't win. He's dangerous to the establishment, because he might actually try to follow through on his promises. He'd actually try to cut funding to the department of education, to social security, to the military industrial complex, and to every pork-barrel project that keeps incumbents in their seats. Of course all the other candidates promise to "veto pork", but they do it with a wink and a nod to their contributors. Even McCain, who, at the last republican debate, pulled out a permanent marker, which he claimed he would use to veto the exorbitant spending of congress, knows how the game is played. And he has the additional problem of not being able to get funding from the corporations that he has angered over the years. Paul doesn't have that problem, because his money comes from a huge base of private citizens. If Paul ever gets too much support, the republican establishment will cut him off like a tumour. The republican congress can't afford to lose another seat, and the next few years will be a battle to see who can bring home the bacon to their congressional districts. All the other candidates know "how to play ball", but not Paul. Paul is the last of a dying breed; he's a politician who doesn't play politics.
